Kada City 2–1 Yobe Stars: Result & Stats | NPFL

Kada City

FT

2 – 1

Yobe Stars

3/3/2019

NPFL · Round 2Ahmadu Bello Stadium (Kaduna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kada City53%

×Draw27%

Yobe Stars20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kada CityExpected goals in this matchYobe Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.75

Kada City

1.42

Yobe Stars

0.75

Kada City creates 89% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.33

creates per match

0.33

1.17

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kada City

1.33

Yobe Stars

0.33

allows per match

Kada City

1.17

Yobe Stars

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kada City+0.00on par

Yobe Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kada City ↓

Yobe Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kada City or draw

80%

Kada City or Yobe Stars

73%

Draw or Yobe Stars

47%

Winning margin

Kada City wins by 2+

26%

Yobe Stars wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kada City 1+ goals

76%

Kada City 2+ goals

41%

Kada City 3+ goals

17%

Yobe Stars 1+ goals

53%

Yobe Stars 2+ goals

17%

Yobe Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kada City (draw refunded)

73%

Yobe Stars (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kada City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Yobe Stars away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kada City attack 1.33 + Yobe Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Yobe Stars attack 0.33 + Kada City defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kada City scores more

53%

level

27%

Yobe Stars scores more

20%

Kada City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kada City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff