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Kada City vs Gombe United — NPFL 2019

Kada City
Kada City
FT
2 – 1
Gombe United
Gombe United
1/20/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 3Pantami Township Stadium (Gombe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kada City58%
×Draw25%
Gombe United18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kada City
1.61
Gombe United
0.76

Kada City creates 112% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 59 away

creates per match

Kada City
1.33
Gombe United
0.36

allows per match

Kada City
1.17
Gombe United
1.90

finishing

Kada City+0.00on par
Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kada City ↓

Gombe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kada City or draw
82%
Kada City or Gombe United
75%
Draw or Gombe United
42%

Winning margin

Kada City wins by 2+
31%
Gombe United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kada City 1+ goals
80%
Kada City 2+ goals
48%
Kada City 3+ goals
22%
Gombe United 1+ goals
53%
Gombe United 2+ goals
18%
Gombe United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kada City (draw refunded)
77%
Gombe United (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kada City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.90 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kada City attack 1.33 + Gombe United defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Kada City defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kada City scores more
58%
level
25%
Gombe United scores more
18%

Kada City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kada City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kada City 2–1 Gombe United

Kada City beat Gombe United 2-1 in NPFL on January 20, 2019.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium (Gombe).