Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kada City vs El Kanemi Warriors — NPFL 2019

Kada City
Kada City
FT
2 – 1
El Kanemi Warriors
El Kanemi Warriors
2/6/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 7Ahmadu Bello Stadium (Kaduna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kada City56%
×Draw25%
El Kanemi Warriors19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kada City
1.58
El Kanemi Warriors
0.80

Kada City creates 98% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 59 away

creates per match

Kada City
1.33
El Kanemi Warriors
0.44

allows per match

Kada City
1.17
El Kanemi Warriors
1.83

finishing

Kada City+0.00on par
El Kanemi Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kada City ↓

El Kanemi Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kada City or draw
81%
Kada City or El Kanemi Warriors
75%
Draw or El Kanemi Warriors
44%

Winning margin

Kada City wins by 2+
30%
El Kanemi Warriors wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kada City 1+ goals
79%
Kada City 2+ goals
47%
Kada City 3+ goals
21%
El Kanemi Warriors 1+ goals
55%
El Kanemi Warriors 2+ goals
19%
El Kanemi Warriors 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kada City (draw refunded)
75%
El Kanemi Warriors (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kada City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

El Kanemi Warriors away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.83 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kada City attack 1.33 + El Kanemi Warriors defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

El Kanemi Warriors attack 0.44 + Kada City defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kada City scores more
56%
level
25%
El Kanemi Warriors scores more
19%

Kada City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kada City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Kada City 2–1 El Kanemi Warriors

Kada City beat El Kanemi Warriors 2-1 in NPFL on February 6, 2019.

The match was played at Ahmadu Bello Stadium (Kaduna).