KAC 1–1 Donau Klagenfurt: Result & Stats

KAC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Donau Klagenfurt

11/9/2024

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 16Sportplatz KAC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

KAC46%

×Draw24%

Donau Klagenfurt30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KACExpected goals in this matchDonau Klagenfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.33

KAC

1.71

Donau Klagenfurt

1.33

KAC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 44 away

1.53

creates per match

1.36

1.30

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

KAC

1.53

Donau Klagenfurt

1.36

allows per match

KAC

1.30

Donau Klagenfurt

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAC+0.00on par

Donau Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC ↓

Donau Klagenfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

KAC or draw

70%

KAC or Donau Klagenfurt

76%

Draw or Donau Klagenfurt

54%

Winning margin

KAC wins by 2+

25%

Donau Klagenfurt wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

KAC 1+ goals

82%

KAC 2+ goals

51%

KAC 3+ goals

24%

Donau Klagenfurt 1+ goals

74%

Donau Klagenfurt 2+ goals

38%

Donau Klagenfurt 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

KAC (draw refunded)

61%

Donau Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

Donau Klagenfurt away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC attack 1.53 + Donau Klagenfurt defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Donau Klagenfurt attack 1.36 + KAC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KAC scores more

46%

level

24%

Donau Klagenfurt scores more

30%

KAC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff