KAC 4–0 Admira Villach: Result & Stats

KAC

FT

4 – 0

Admira Villach

10/8/2021

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 13Sportplatz KAC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

KAC63%

×Draw19%

Admira Villach17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KACExpected goals in this matchAdmira Villach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.12

KAC

2.29

Admira Villach

1.12

KAC creates 104% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

1.53

creates per match

0.94

1.30

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

KAC

1.53

Admira Villach

0.94

allows per match

KAC

1.30

Admira Villach

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAC+0.00on par

Admira Villach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC ↓

Admira Villach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

KAC or draw

83%

KAC or Admira Villach

81%

Draw or Admira Villach

37%

Winning margin

KAC wins by 2+

41%

Admira Villach wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

KAC 1+ goals

90%

KAC 2+ goals

66%

KAC 3+ goals

40%

Admira Villach 1+ goals

67%

Admira Villach 2+ goals

31%

Admira Villach 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

KAC (draw refunded)

78%

Admira Villach (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

Admira Villach away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC attack 1.53 + Admira Villach defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.29

Admira Villach attack 0.94 + KAC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

KAC scores more

63%

level

19%

Admira Villach scores more

17%

KAC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "KAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff