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KAC Soccer vs Dormaa — Division One League 2025

KAC Soccer
KAC Soccer
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dormaa
Dormaa
10/5/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KAC Soccer51%
×Draw22%
Dormaa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Soccer
1.93
Dormaa
1.36

KAC Soccer creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

KAC Soccer
1.57
Dormaa
1.86

allows per match

KAC Soccer
0.86
Dormaa
2.29

finishing

KAC Soccer+0.00on par
Dormaa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Soccer ↓

Dormaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

KAC Soccer or draw
73%
KAC Soccer or Dormaa
78%
Draw or Dormaa
49%

Winning margin

KAC Soccer wins by 2+
29%
Dormaa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

KAC Soccer 1+ goals
85%
KAC Soccer 2+ goals
57%
KAC Soccer 3+ goals
30%
Dormaa 1+ goals
74%
Dormaa 2+ goals
39%
Dormaa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

KAC Soccer (draw refunded)
65%
Dormaa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Soccer at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Dormaa away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Soccer attack 1.57 + Dormaa defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.93

Dormaa attack 1.86 + KAC Soccer defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

KAC Soccer scores more
51%
level
22%
Dormaa scores more
27%

KAC Soccer at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "KAC Soccer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: KAC Soccer 2–0 Dormaa

KAC Soccer beat Dormaa 2-0 in Division One League on October 5, 2025.