KAC Kenitra 1–1 Youssoufia Berrechid

KAC Kenitra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Youssoufia Berrechid

4/24/2025

Botola 2 · Round 24Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

KAC Kenitra43%

×Draw29%

Youssoufia Berrechid28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAC KenitraExpected goals in this matchYoussoufia Berrechid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.94

KAC Kenitra

1.24

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.94

KAC Kenitra creates 32% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

1.25

creates per match

0.87

1.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

KAC Kenitra

1.25

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.87

allows per match

KAC Kenitra

1.00

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw

72%

KAC Kenitra or Youssoufia Berrechid

71%

Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid

57%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+

19%

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals

71%

KAC Kenitra 2+ goals

35%

KAC Kenitra 3+ goals

13%

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

61%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

24%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)

61%

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.25 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.87 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more

43%

level

29%

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

28%

KAC Kenitra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff