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KAC Kenitra vs UTS Rabat — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
1 – 2
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
Unknown 67'
Unknown 67', 34'
12/27/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 5Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

KAC Kenitra36%
×Draw29%
UTS Rabat35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.09
UTS Rabat
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 30 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.26
UTS Rabat
1.17

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
UTS Rabat
0.93

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
65%
KAC Kenitra or UTS Rabat
71%
Draw or UTS Rabat
64%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
14%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
66%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
30%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
10%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
66%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
29%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
50%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.26 + UTS Rabat defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

UTS Rabat attack 1.17 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
36%
level
29%
UTS Rabat scores more
35%

KAC Kenitra at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
67'
67'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KAC Kenitra vs UTS Rabat

UTS Rabat beat KAC Kenitra 2-1 in Botola 2 on December 27, 2020.

Goals: ? (34', 67', 67').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.