KAC Kenitra 0–0 USM Oujda: Result & Stats

KAC Kenitra

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

USM Oujda

2/16/2025

Botola 2 · Round 17Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

KAC Kenitra47%

×Draw28%

USM Oujda24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAC KenitraExpected goals in this matchUSM Oujda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.85

KAC Kenitra

1.31

USM Oujda

0.85

KAC Kenitra creates 54% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 75 away

1.26

creates per match

0.71

1.00

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

KAC Kenitra

1.26

USM Oujda

0.71

allows per match

KAC Kenitra

1.00

USM Oujda

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

USM Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

USM Oujda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw

76%

KAC Kenitra or USM Oujda

72%

Draw or USM Oujda

53%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+

22%

USM Oujda wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals

73%

KAC Kenitra 2+ goals

38%

KAC Kenitra 3+ goals

14%

USM Oujda 1+ goals

57%

USM Oujda 2+ goals

21%

USM Oujda 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)

66%

USM Oujda (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

USM Oujda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.26 + USM Oujda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

USM Oujda attack 0.71 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more

47%

level

28%

USM Oujda scores more

24%

KAC Kenitra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff