KAC Kenitra 2–1 Union Sportive Boujaad

KAC Kenitra

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Union Sportive Boujaad

5/3/2026

Botola 2 · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

KAC Kenitra39%

×Draw34%

Union Sportive Boujaad28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAC KenitraExpected goals in this matchUnion Sportive Boujaad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.75

KAC Kenitra

0.95

Union Sportive Boujaad

0.75

KAC Kenitra creates 27% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 16 away

1.26

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

KAC Kenitra

1.26

Union Sportive Boujaad

0.50

allows per match

KAC Kenitra

1.00

Union Sportive Boujaad

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Union Sportive Boujaad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Union Sportive Boujaad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw

72%

KAC Kenitra or Union Sportive Boujaad

66%

Draw or Union Sportive Boujaad

61%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+

14%

Union Sportive Boujaad wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals

61%

KAC Kenitra 2+ goals

25%

KAC Kenitra 3+ goals

7%

Union Sportive Boujaad 1+ goals

53%

Union Sportive Boujaad 2+ goals

17%

Union Sportive Boujaad 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)

58%

Union Sportive Boujaad (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Union Sportive Boujaad away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.26 + Union Sportive Boujaad defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.95

Union Sportive Boujaad attack 0.50 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more

39%

level

34%

Union Sportive Boujaad scores more

28%

KAC Kenitra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff