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KAC Kenitra vs Tihad Casablanca — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
0 – 1
Tihad Casablanca
Tihad Casablanca
7/9/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 30Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

KAC Kenitra42%
×Draw29%
Tihad Casablanca29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.21
Tihad Casablanca
0.94

KAC Kenitra creates 29% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 46 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.25
Tihad Casablanca
0.87

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
Tihad Casablanca
1.17

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Tihad Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
71%
KAC Kenitra or Tihad Casablanca
71%
Draw or Tihad Casablanca
58%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
18%
Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
70%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
34%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
12%
Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals
61%
Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals
24%
Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
60%
Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

Tihad Casablanca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.25 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tihad Casablanca attack 0.87 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
42%
level
29%
Tihad Casablanca scores more
29%

KAC Kenitra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KAC Kenitra vs Tihad Casablanca

Tihad Casablanca beat KAC Kenitra 1-0 in Botola 2 on July 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.