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KAC Kenitra vs Sidi Kacem — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
1 – 1
Sidi Kacem
Sidi Kacem
2/23/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 20Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

KAC Kenitra45%
×Draw28%
Sidi Kacem27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.29
Sidi Kacem
0.94

KAC Kenitra creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.25
Sidi Kacem
0.87

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
Sidi Kacem
1.33

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
Sidi Kacem+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Sidi Kacem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
73%
KAC Kenitra or Sidi Kacem
72%
Draw or Sidi Kacem
55%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
20%
Sidi Kacem wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
72%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
37%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
14%
Sidi Kacem 1+ goals
61%
Sidi Kacem 2+ goals
24%
Sidi Kacem 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
62%
Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

Sidi Kacem away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.25 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sidi Kacem attack 0.87 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
45%
level
28%
Sidi Kacem scores more
27%

KAC Kenitra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: KAC Kenitra 1–1 Sidi Kacem

KAC Kenitra and Sidi Kacem drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.