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KAC Kenitra vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
12/8/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 8Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

KAC Kenitra41%
×Draw29%
Rapide Oued ZEM30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.19
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.96

KAC Kenitra creates 24% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.25
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.91

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.13

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
70%
KAC Kenitra or Rapide Oued ZEM
71%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
59%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
18%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
70%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
33%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
12%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
62%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
25%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
58%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.25 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.91 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
41%
level
29%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
30%

KAC Kenitra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: KAC Kenitra 2–0 Rapide Oued ZEM

KAC Kenitra beat Rapide Oued ZEM 2-0 in Botola 2 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.