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KAC Kenitra vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
0 – 2
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
6/11/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 26Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

KAC Kenitra43%
×Draw28%
Olympique Khouribga29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.29
Olympique Khouribga
1.00

KAC Kenitra creates 29% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.25
Olympique Khouribga
1.00

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
71%
KAC Kenitra or Olympique Khouribga
72%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
57%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
20%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
72%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
37%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
14%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
63%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
26%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
60%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.25 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.00 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
43%
level
28%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
29%

KAC Kenitra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: KAC Kenitra 0–2 Olympique Khouribga

Olympique Khouribga beat KAC Kenitra 2-0 in Botola 2 on June 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.