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KAC Kenitra vs El Massira — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
El Massira
El Massira
Al-Hashemi 81'
B. Taali 64'
1/12/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 14Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

KAC Kenitra45%
×Draw29%
El Massira26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.27
El Massira
0.90

KAC Kenitra creates 41% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 90 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.26
El Massira
0.79

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
El Massira
1.28

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
El Massira+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

El Massira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
74%
KAC Kenitra or El Massira
71%
Draw or El Massira
55%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
20%
El Massira wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
72%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
36%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
14%
El Massira 1+ goals
59%
El Massira 2+ goals
23%
El Massira 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
63%
El Massira (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

El Massira away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.26 + El Massira defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

El Massira attack 0.79 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
45%
level
29%
El Massira scores more
26%

KAC Kenitra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'
B. Taali
81'
Al-Hashemi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KAC Kenitra vs El Massira

El Massira beat KAC Kenitra 2-0 in Botola 2 on January 12, 2025.

Goals: B. Taali (64'), Al-Hashemi (81').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.