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KAC Kenitra vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
1 – 1
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
8/9/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 24Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KAC Kenitra52%
×Draw28%
Chabab RIF Hoceima20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.36
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.73

KAC Kenitra creates 86% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.25
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.47

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
80%
KAC Kenitra or Chabab RIF Hoceima
72%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
48%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
25%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
74%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
39%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
16%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
52%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
17%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
72%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.25 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.47 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
52%
level
28%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
20%

KAC Kenitra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: KAC Kenitra 1–1 Chabab RIF Hoceima

KAC Kenitra and Chabab RIF Hoceima drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.