Kabwe Warriors 2–1 Trident: Result & Stats

Kabwe Warriors

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Trident

8/26/2023

Super League · Round 2Godfrey Chitalu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kabwe Warriors48%

×Draw30%

Trident22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kabwe WarriorsExpected goals in this matchTrident

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.71

Kabwe Warriors

1.21

Trident

0.71

Kabwe Warriors creates 70% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

1.17

creates per match

0.71

0.72

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Kabwe Warriors

1.17

Trident

0.71

allows per match

Kabwe Warriors

0.72

Trident

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kabwe Warriors+0.00on par

Trident+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabwe Warriors ↓

Trident →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kabwe Warriors or draw

78%

Kabwe Warriors or Trident

70%

Draw or Trident

52%

Winning margin

Kabwe Warriors wins by 2+

21%

Trident wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kabwe Warriors 1+ goals

70%

Kabwe Warriors 2+ goals

34%

Kabwe Warriors 3+ goals

12%

Trident 1+ goals

51%

Trident 2+ goals

16%

Trident 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kabwe Warriors (draw refunded)

69%

Trident (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabwe Warriors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.72 · 111 matches

Trident away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabwe Warriors attack 1.17 + Trident defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Trident attack 0.71 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kabwe Warriors scores more

48%

level

30%

Trident scores more

22%

Kabwe Warriors at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kabwe Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff