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Kabwe Warriors vs Konkola Blades — Super League 2019

Kabwe Warriors
Kabwe Warriors
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Konkola Blades
Konkola Blades
10/4/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Godfrey Chitalu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Kabwe Warriors46%
×Draw31%
Konkola Blades22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabwe Warriors
1.15
Konkola Blades
0.70

Kabwe Warriors creates 64% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 50 away

creates per match

Kabwe Warriors
1.17
Konkola Blades
0.68

allows per match

Kabwe Warriors
0.72
Konkola Blades
1.12

finishing

Kabwe Warriors+0.00on par
Konkola Blades+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabwe Warriors ↓

Konkola Blades →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kabwe Warriors or draw
78%
Kabwe Warriors or Konkola Blades
69%
Draw or Konkola Blades
54%

Winning margin

Kabwe Warriors wins by 2+
20%
Konkola Blades wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kabwe Warriors 1+ goals
68%
Kabwe Warriors 2+ goals
32%
Kabwe Warriors 3+ goals
11%
Konkola Blades 1+ goals
50%
Konkola Blades 2+ goals
16%
Konkola Blades 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kabwe Warriors (draw refunded)
67%
Konkola Blades (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabwe Warriors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.72 · 111 matches

Konkola Blades away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabwe Warriors attack 1.17 + Konkola Blades defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Konkola Blades attack 0.68 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kabwe Warriors scores more
46%
level
31%
Konkola Blades scores more
22%

Kabwe Warriors at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kabwe Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kabwe Warriors vs Konkola Blades

Kabwe Warriors beat Konkola Blades 1-0 in Super League on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Godfrey Chitalu Stadium in Kabwe.