Kabwe Warriors 2–1 Kansanshi Dynamos

Kabwe Warriors

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kansanshi Dynamos

4/17/2024

Super League · Round 28Godfrey Chitalu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kabwe Warriors46%

×Draw31%

Kansanshi Dynamos23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kabwe WarriorsExpected goals in this matchKansanshi Dynamos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.70

Kabwe Warriors

1.14

Kansanshi Dynamos

0.70

Kabwe Warriors creates 63% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 68 away

1.17

creates per match

0.68

0.72

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Kabwe Warriors

1.17

Kansanshi Dynamos

0.68

allows per match

Kabwe Warriors

0.72

Kansanshi Dynamos

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kabwe Warriors+0.00on par

Kansanshi Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabwe Warriors ↓

Kansanshi Dynamos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Kabwe Warriors or draw

77%

Kabwe Warriors or Kansanshi Dynamos

69%

Draw or Kansanshi Dynamos

54%

Winning margin

Kabwe Warriors wins by 2+

20%

Kansanshi Dynamos wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kabwe Warriors 1+ goals

68%

Kabwe Warriors 2+ goals

32%

Kabwe Warriors 3+ goals

11%

Kansanshi Dynamos 1+ goals

50%

Kansanshi Dynamos 2+ goals

16%

Kansanshi Dynamos 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Kabwe Warriors (draw refunded)

67%

Kansanshi Dynamos (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabwe Warriors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.72 · 111 matches

Kansanshi Dynamos away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabwe Warriors attack 1.17 + Kansanshi Dynamos defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Kansanshi Dynamos attack 0.68 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kabwe Warriors scores more

46%

level

31%

Kansanshi Dynamos scores more

23%

Kabwe Warriors at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kabwe Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff