Kabuscorp 0–0 Wiliete: Result & Stats | Girabola

Kabuscorp

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wiliete

4/13/2024

Girabola · Round 20Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Kabuscorp42%

×Draw30%

Wiliete28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KabuscorpExpected goals in this matchWiliete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.90

Kabuscorp

1.16

Wiliete

0.90

Kabuscorp creates 29% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 99 away

1.29

creates per match

0.95

0.85

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Kabuscorp

1.29

Wiliete

0.95

allows per match

Kabuscorp

0.85

Wiliete

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par

Wiliete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

Wiliete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw

72%

Kabuscorp or Wiliete

70%

Draw or Wiliete

58%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+

18%

Wiliete wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals

69%

Kabuscorp 2+ goals

32%

Kabuscorp 3+ goals

11%

Wiliete 1+ goals

59%

Wiliete 2+ goals

23%

Wiliete 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)

60%

Wiliete (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.85 · 72 matches

Wiliete away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.29 + Wiliete defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Wiliete attack 0.95 + Kabuscorp defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kabuscorp scores more

42%

level

30%

Wiliete scores more

28%

Kabuscorp at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff