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Kabuscorp vs União de Malanje — Girabola 2019

Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
União de Malanje
União de Malanje
12/22/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 10Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kabuscorp62%
×Draw23%
União de Malanje14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabuscorp
1.70
União de Malanje
0.67

Kabuscorp creates 154% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kabuscorp
1.33
União de Malanje
0.50

allows per match

Kabuscorp
0.84
União de Malanje
2.07

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par
União de Malanje+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

União de Malanje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw
86%
Kabuscorp or União de Malanje
77%
Draw or União de Malanje
38%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+
35%
União de Malanje wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals
82%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
51%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
24%
União de Malanje 1+ goals
49%
União de Malanje 2+ goals
15%
União de Malanje 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
81%
União de Malanje (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

União de Malanje away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.33 + União de Malanje defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.70

União de Malanje attack 0.50 + Kabuscorp defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kabuscorp scores more
62%
level
23%
União de Malanje scores more
14%

Kabuscorp at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kabuscorp vs União de Malanje

Kabuscorp and União de Malanje drew 0-0 in Girabola on December 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.