Kabuscorp 0–2 Petro de Luanda: Result & Stats

Kabuscorp

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Petro de Luanda

Quinito 13'

P. Aparicio 9'

10/26/2024

Girabola · Round 7Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Kabuscorp28%

×Draw28%

Petro de Luanda44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KabuscorpExpected goals in this matchPetro de Luanda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.29

Kabuscorp

0.96

Petro de Luanda

1.29

Petro de Luanda creates 34% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 109 away

1.31

creates per match

1.75

0.84

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Kabuscorp

1.31

Petro de Luanda

1.75

allows per match

Kabuscorp

0.84

Petro de Luanda

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

Petro de Luanda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw

56%

Kabuscorp or Petro de Luanda

72%

Draw or Petro de Luanda

72%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+

10%

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals

62%

Kabuscorp 2+ goals

25%

Kabuscorp 3+ goals

7%

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals

72%

Petro de Luanda 2+ goals

37%

Petro de Luanda 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)

39%

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 74 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.31 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.96

Petro de Luanda attack 1.75 + Kabuscorp defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kabuscorp scores more

28%

level

28%

Petro de Luanda scores more

44%

Petro de Luanda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

P. Aparicio

13'

Quinito

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff