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Kabuscorp vs Desportivo Huíla — Girabola 2019

Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
11/28/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 9Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Kabuscorp47%
×Draw29%
Desportivo Huíla24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabuscorp
1.25
Desportivo Huíla
0.80

Kabuscorp creates 56% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 100 away

creates per match

Kabuscorp
1.29
Desportivo Huíla
0.76

allows per match

Kabuscorp
0.85
Desportivo Huíla
1.21

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par
Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

Desportivo Huíla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw
76%
Kabuscorp or Desportivo Huíla
71%
Draw or Desportivo Huíla
53%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+
21%
Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals
71%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
36%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
13%
Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
55%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
19%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
66%
Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.85 · 72 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.29 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + Kabuscorp defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kabuscorp scores more
47%
level
29%
Desportivo Huíla scores more
24%

Kabuscorp at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Kabuscorp 0–2 Desportivo Huíla

Desportivo Huíla beat Kabuscorp 2-0 in Girabola on November 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.