Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kabuscorp vs Cuando Cubango — Girabola 2019

Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
FT
2 – 1
Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
7/28/2018GirabolaGirabola · Round 26Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros (Luanda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Kabuscorp51%
×Draw27%
Cuando Cubango22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabuscorp
1.42
Cuando Cubango
0.82

Kabuscorp creates 73% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 50 away

creates per match

Kabuscorp
1.33
Cuando Cubango
0.80

allows per match

Kabuscorp
0.84
Cuando Cubango
1.50

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par
Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

Cuando Cubango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw
78%
Kabuscorp or Cuando Cubango
73%
Draw or Cuando Cubango
49%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+
25%
Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals
76%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
41%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
17%
Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
56%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
20%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
70%
Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Cuando Cubango away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.33 + Cuando Cubango defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cuando Cubango attack 0.80 + Kabuscorp defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kabuscorp scores more
51%
level
27%
Cuando Cubango scores more
22%

Kabuscorp at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Kabuscorp 2–1 Cuando Cubango

Kabuscorp beat Cuando Cubango 2-1 in Girabola on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros (Luanda).