Kabuscorp 3–0 Carmona: Result & Stats | Girabola

Kabuscorp

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Carmona

2/23/2025

Girabola · Round 17Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kabuscorp68%

×Draw21%

Carmona11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KabuscorpExpected goals in this matchCarmona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.59

Kabuscorp

1.89

Carmona

0.59

Kabuscorp creates 220% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

1.31

creates per match

0.33

0.85

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Kabuscorp

1.31

Carmona

0.33

allows per match

Kabuscorp

0.85

Carmona

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par

Carmona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

Carmona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw

89%

Kabuscorp or Carmona

79%

Draw or Carmona

32%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+

42%

Carmona wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals

85%

Kabuscorp 2+ goals

56%

Kabuscorp 3+ goals

29%

Carmona 1+ goals

45%

Carmona 2+ goals

12%

Carmona 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)

86%

Carmona (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Carmona away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.31 + Carmona defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.89

Carmona attack 0.33 + Kabuscorp defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kabuscorp scores more

68%

level

21%

Carmona scores more

11%

Kabuscorp at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff