Kabuscorp 4–2 1º de Maio: Result & Stats | Girabola

Kabuscorp

FT

4 – 2

1º de Maio

8/5/2018

Girabola · Round 28Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros (Luanda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kabuscorp52%

×Draw28%

1º de Maio20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KabuscorpExpected goals in this match1º de Maio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.70

Kabuscorp

1.34

1º de Maio

0.70

Kabuscorp creates 91% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 17 away

1.21

creates per match

0.71

0.68

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Kabuscorp

1.21

1º de Maio

0.71

allows per match

Kabuscorp

0.68

1º de Maio

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par

1º de Maio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

1º de Maio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw

80%

Kabuscorp or 1º de Maio

72%

Draw or 1º de Maio

48%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+

25%

1º de Maio wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals

74%

Kabuscorp 2+ goals

39%

Kabuscorp 3+ goals

15%

1º de Maio 1+ goals

50%

1º de Maio 2+ goals

16%

1º de Maio 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)

73%

1º de Maio (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

1º de Maio away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.21 + 1º de Maio defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

1º de Maio attack 0.71 + Kabuscorp defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kabuscorp scores more

52%

level

28%

1º de Maio scores more

20%

Kabuscorp at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff