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Kablovi Zaječar vs Vlasina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
FT
0 – 6
Vlasina
Vlasina
3/31/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 25Stadion FK Kablovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kablovi Zaječar18%
×Draw18%
Vlasina64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kablovi Zaječar
1.33
Vlasina
2.62

Vlasina creates 97% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Kablovi Zaječar
0.95
Vlasina
1.40

allows per match

Kablovi Zaječar
3.84
Vlasina
1.72

finishing

Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par
Vlasina+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kablovi Zaječar ↓

Vlasina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kablovi Zaječar or draw
36%
Kablovi Zaječar or Vlasina
82%
Draw or Vlasina
82%

Winning margin

Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
7%
Vlasina wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
74%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
38%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
15%
Vlasina 1+ goals
93%
Vlasina 2+ goals
73%
Vlasina 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
22%
Vlasina (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kablovi Zaječar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 3.84 · 19 matches

Vlasina away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.95 + Vlasina defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vlasina attack 1.40 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kablovi Zaječar scores more
18%
level
18%
Vlasina scores more
64%

Vlasina at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kablovi Zaječar vs Vlasina

Vlasina beat Kablovi Zaječar 6-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kablovi in Zaječar.