Kablovi Zaječar vs Trstenik PPT — Srpska Liga - East 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Kablovi Zaječar22%
Trstenik PPT59%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Trstenik PPT creates 68% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 58 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over75
- Under25
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes71
- No29
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kablovi Zaječar ↓
Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kablovi Zaječar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 3.84 · 19 matches
Trstenik PPT away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 58 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.95 + Trstenik PPT defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48
Trstenik PPT attack 1.14 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 2.49
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 59%?"
Trstenik PPT at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 59% does not mean "Trstenik PPT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Jagodina
Budućnost Popovac
Sinđelić
Toplicanin Prokuplje
SFS Borac
Vlasina
Timočanin
Radan
Moravac Mrštane
Dunav Prahovo
Car Konstantin
Dubočica
Rembas
Jedinstvo BošnjaceTrstenik PPT
Temnic 1924If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kablovi Zaječar host Trstenik PPT on Sunday, 28 March 2021 at 13:00. The match is part of the Srpska Liga - East 2019/2020 season.
Kablovi Zaječar 0 – 6 Trstenik PPT
Trstenik PPT beat Kablovi Zaječar 6-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 28, 2021.
The match was played at Stadion FK Kablovi in Zaječar.