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Kablovi Zaječar vs Toplicanin Prokuplje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
FT
0 – 3
Toplicanin Prokuplje
Toplicanin Prokuplje
5/19/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 35Stadion FK Kablovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kablovi Zaječar22%
×Draw19%
Toplicanin Prokuplje59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kablovi Zaječar
1.48
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.47

Toplicanin Prokuplje creates 67% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 42 away

creates per match

Kablovi Zaječar
0.95
Toplicanin Prokuplje
1.10

allows per match

Kablovi Zaječar
3.84
Toplicanin Prokuplje
2.00

finishing

Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par
Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kablovi Zaječar ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kablovi Zaječar or draw
41%
Kablovi Zaječar or Toplicanin Prokuplje
81%
Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje
78%

Winning margin

Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
10%
Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
77%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
43%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
19%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals
91%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals
70%
Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
27%
Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kablovi Zaječar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 3.84 · 19 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.95 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 2.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kablovi Zaječar scores more
22%
level
19%
Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more
59%

Toplicanin Prokuplje at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Toplicanin Prokuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kablovi Zaječar vs Toplicanin Prokuplje

Toplicanin Prokuplje beat Kablovi Zaječar 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kablovi in Zaječar.