Kablovi Zaječar 1–1 Rembas: Result & Stats

Kablovi Zaječar

FT

1 – 1

Rembas

10/7/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 11Stadion FK Kablovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kablovi Zaječar20%

×Draw18%

Rembas62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kablovi ZaječarExpected goals in this matchRembas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.61

Kablovi Zaječar

1.45

Rembas

2.61

Rembas creates 80% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

0.95

creates per match

1.39

3.84

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Kablovi Zaječar

0.95

Rembas

1.39

allows per match

Kablovi Zaječar

3.84

Rembas

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Rembas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kablovi Zaječar ↓

Rembas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Kablovi Zaječar or draw

38%

Kablovi Zaječar or Rembas

82%

Draw or Rembas

80%

Winning margin

Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+

9%

Rembas wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals

77%

Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals

42%

Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals

18%

Rembas 1+ goals

93%

Rembas 2+ goals

73%

Rembas 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)

25%

Rembas (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kablovi Zaječar at home — creates 0.95, concedes 3.84 · 19 matches

Rembas away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.95 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.95 + Rembas defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rembas attack 1.39 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 2.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kablovi Zaječar scores more

20%

level

18%

Rembas scores more

62%

Rembas at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rembas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff