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Kabel Novi Sad vs Zarkovo — Prva Liga 2018

Kabel Novi Sad
Kabel Novi Sad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zarkovo
Zarkovo
4/7/2021Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 26Stadion FK Kabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kabel Novi Sad34%
×Draw29%
Zarkovo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabel Novi Sad
1.10
Zarkovo
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

creates per match

Kabel Novi Sad
0.88
Zarkovo
1.10

allows per match

Kabel Novi Sad
1.20
Zarkovo
1.32

finishing

Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par
Zarkovo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabel Novi Sad ↓

Zarkovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kabel Novi Sad or draw
63%
Kabel Novi Sad or Zarkovo
71%
Draw or Zarkovo
66%

Winning margin

Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+
14%
Zarkovo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals
67%
Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals
30%
Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals
10%
Zarkovo 1+ goals
68%
Zarkovo 2+ goals
32%
Zarkovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)
48%
Zarkovo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabel Novi Sad at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

Zarkovo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.88 + Zarkovo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kabel Novi Sad scores more
34%
level
29%
Zarkovo scores more
37%

Zarkovo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zarkovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Kabel Novi Sad 2–0 Zarkovo

Kabel Novi Sad beat Zarkovo 2-0 in Prva Liga on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kabel in Novi Sad.