Kabel Novi Sad 1–0 Radnički Zrenjanin

Kabel Novi Sad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Radnički Zrenjanin

11/10/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 12Stadion FK Kabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kabel Novi Sad63%

×Draw21%

Radnički Zrenjanin16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kabel Novi SadExpected goals in this matchRadnički Zrenjanin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.90

Kabel Novi Sad

1.99

Radnički Zrenjanin

0.90

Kabel Novi Sad creates 121% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 87 away

2.20

creates per match

1.08

0.71

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Kabel Novi Sad

2.20

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.08

allows per match

Kabel Novi Sad

0.71

Radnički Zrenjanin

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabel Novi Sad ↓

Radnički Zrenjanin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kabel Novi Sad or draw

84%

Kabel Novi Sad or Radnički Zrenjanin

79%

Draw or Radnički Zrenjanin

37%

Winning margin

Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+

38%

Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals

86%

Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals

59%

Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals

32%

Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals

59%

Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals

23%

Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)

79%

Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabel Novi Sad at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Radnički Zrenjanin away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabel Novi Sad attack 2.20 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.99

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.08 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kabel Novi Sad scores more

63%

level

21%

Radnički Zrenjanin scores more

16%

Kabel Novi Sad at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kabel Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff