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Kabel Novi Sad vs Radnički Sr. Mitrovica — Prva Liga 2018

Kabel Novi Sad
Kabel Novi Sad
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
3/23/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 27Stadion FK Kabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kabel Novi Sad35%
×Draw30%
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabel Novi Sad
1.03
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 91 away

creates per match

Kabel Novi Sad
0.88
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
0.82

allows per match

Kabel Novi Sad
1.20
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
1.18

finishing

Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabel Novi Sad ↓

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kabel Novi Sad or draw
66%
Kabel Novi Sad or Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
70%
Draw or Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
65%

Winning margin

Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+
14%
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals
64%
Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals
28%
Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals
9%
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 1+ goals
64%
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 2+ goals
27%
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)
51%
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabel Novi Sad at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.88 + Radnički Sr. Mitrovica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica attack 0.82 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Kabel Novi Sad scores more
35%
level
30%
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica scores more
34%

Kabel Novi Sad at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Kabel Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kabel Novi Sad vs Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica beat Kabel Novi Sad 4-0 in Prva Liga on March 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kabel in Novi Sad.