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Kabel Novi Sad vs Podunavac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Kabel Novi Sad
Kabel Novi Sad
FT
1 – 1
Podunavac
Podunavac
10/22/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 11Stadion FK Kabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Kabel Novi Sad56%
×Draw23%
Podunavac21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabel Novi Sad
1.76
Podunavac
0.97

Kabel Novi Sad creates 81% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

Kabel Novi Sad
2.20
Podunavac
1.23

allows per match

Kabel Novi Sad
0.71
Podunavac
1.32

finishing

Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par
Podunavac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabel Novi Sad ↓

Podunavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kabel Novi Sad or draw
79%
Kabel Novi Sad or Podunavac
77%
Draw or Podunavac
44%

Winning margin

Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+
31%
Podunavac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals
83%
Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals
52%
Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals
26%
Podunavac 1+ goals
62%
Podunavac 2+ goals
25%
Podunavac 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)
73%
Podunavac (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabel Novi Sad at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Podunavac away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabel Novi Sad attack 2.20 + Podunavac defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.76

Podunavac attack 1.23 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kabel Novi Sad scores more
56%
level
23%
Podunavac scores more
21%

Kabel Novi Sad at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kabel Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Kabel Novi Sad 1–1 Podunavac

Kabel Novi Sad and Podunavac drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kabel in Novi Sad.