Kabel Novi Sad 2–2 Backa: Result & Stats

Kabel Novi Sad

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Backa

6/1/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 30Stadion FK Kabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kabel Novi Sad66%

×Draw21%

Backa13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kabel Novi SadExpected goals in this matchBacka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.74

Kabel Novi Sad

1.95

Backa

0.74

Kabel Novi Sad creates 164% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 37 away

2.20

creates per match

0.78

0.71

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Kabel Novi Sad

2.20

Backa

0.78

allows per match

Kabel Novi Sad

0.71

Backa

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabel Novi Sad ↓

Backa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kabel Novi Sad or draw

87%

Kabel Novi Sad or Backa

79%

Draw or Backa

34%

Winning margin

Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+

40%

Backa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals

86%

Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals

58%

Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals

31%

Backa 1+ goals

52%

Backa 2+ goals

17%

Backa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)

83%

Backa (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabel Novi Sad at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Backa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabel Novi Sad attack 2.20 + Backa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.95

Backa attack 0.78 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kabel Novi Sad scores more

66%

level

21%

Backa scores more

13%

Kabel Novi Sad at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kabel Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff