Kabel Novi Sad 1–1 Backa: Result & Stats

Kabel Novi Sad

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Backa

11/27/2021

Prva Liga · Round 20Stadion FK Kabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kabel Novi Sad38%

×Draw30%

Backa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kabel Novi SadExpected goals in this matchBacka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.97

Kabel Novi Sad

1.08

Backa

0.97

Kabel Novi Sad creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

0.88

creates per match

0.74

1.20

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Kabel Novi Sad

0.88

Backa

0.74

allows per match

Kabel Novi Sad

1.20

Backa

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabel Novi Sad ↓

Backa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kabel Novi Sad or draw

68%

Kabel Novi Sad or Backa

70%

Draw or Backa

62%

Winning margin

Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+

15%

Backa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals

66%

Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals

29%

Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals

10%

Backa 1+ goals

62%

Backa 2+ goals

25%

Backa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)

54%

Backa (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabel Novi Sad at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

Backa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.88 + Backa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Backa attack 0.74 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kabel Novi Sad scores more

38%

level

30%

Backa scores more

32%

Kabel Novi Sad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kabel Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff