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Kabel Novi Sad vs Backa — Prva Liga 2018

Kabel Novi Sad
Kabel Novi Sad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Backa
Backa
10/27/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 16Stadion Slana Bara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kabel Novi Sad38%
×Draw30%
Backa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabel Novi Sad
1.08
Backa
0.97

Kabel Novi Sad creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kabel Novi Sad
0.88
Backa
0.74

allows per match

Kabel Novi Sad
1.20
Backa
1.29

finishing

Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabel Novi Sad ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kabel Novi Sad or draw
68%
Kabel Novi Sad or Backa
70%
Draw or Backa
62%

Winning margin

Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+
15%
Backa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals
66%
Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals
29%
Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals
10%
Backa 1+ goals
62%
Backa 2+ goals
25%
Backa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)
54%
Backa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabel Novi Sad at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

Backa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.88 + Backa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Backa attack 0.74 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kabel Novi Sad scores more
38%
level
30%
Backa scores more
32%

Kabel Novi Sad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kabel Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kabel Novi Sad vs Backa

Kabel Novi Sad and Backa drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Slana Bara in Novi Sad.