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Kabel Novi Sad vs 1. Maj Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Kabel Novi Sad
Kabel Novi Sad
FT
2 – 2
1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
5/14/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 26Stadion FK Kabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kabel Novi Sad62%
×Draw21%
1. Maj Ruma16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabel Novi Sad
1.96
1. Maj Ruma
0.89

Kabel Novi Sad creates 120% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 72 away

creates per match

Kabel Novi Sad
2.20
1. Maj Ruma
1.06

allows per match

Kabel Novi Sad
0.71
1. Maj Ruma
1.72

finishing

Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par
1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabel Novi Sad ↓

1. Maj Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kabel Novi Sad or draw
84%
Kabel Novi Sad or 1. Maj Ruma
79%
Draw or 1. Maj Ruma
38%

Winning margin

Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+
38%
1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals
86%
Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals
58%
Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals
31%
1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
59%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
22%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)
79%
1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabel Novi Sad at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabel Novi Sad attack 2.20 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.96

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kabel Novi Sad scores more
62%
level
21%
1. Maj Ruma scores more
16%

Kabel Novi Sad at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kabel Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Kabel Novi Sad 2–2 1. Maj Ruma

Kabel Novi Sad and 1. Maj Ruma drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kabel in Novi Sad.