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KaaPo vs Turku PS — Suomen Cup 2018

KaaPo
KaaPo
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Turku PS
Turku PS
4/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundPuuha-areena KHT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KaaPo13%
×Draw17%
Turku PS71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KaaPo
0.96
Turku PS
2.50

Turku PS creates 160% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

KaaPo
0.75
Turku PS
2.00

allows per match

KaaPo
3.00
Turku PS
1.18

finishing

KaaPo+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KaaPo ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

KaaPo or draw
29%
KaaPo or Turku PS
83%
Draw or Turku PS
87%

Winning margin

KaaPo wins by 2+
4%
Turku PS wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

KaaPo 1+ goals
62%
KaaPo 2+ goals
25%
KaaPo 3+ goals
7%
Turku PS 1+ goals
92%
Turku PS 2+ goals
71%
Turku PS 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

KaaPo (draw refunded)
15%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KaaPo at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Turku PS away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KaaPo attack 0.75 + Turku PS defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.96

Turku PS attack 2.00 + KaaPo defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

KaaPo scores more
13%
level
17%
Turku PS scores more
71%

Turku PS at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KaaPo 0–4 Turku PS

Turku PS beat KaaPo 4-0 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Puuha-areena KHT in Kaarina.