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KaaPo vs TPV — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

KaaPo
KaaPo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
TPV
TPV
8/1/2021Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 6Puuha-areena KHT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

KaaPo50%
×Draw22%
TPV29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KaaPo
2.04
TPV
1.52

KaaPo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 40 away

creates per match

KaaPo
1.63
TPV
1.55

allows per match

KaaPo
1.50
TPV
2.45

finishing

KaaPo+0.00on par
TPV+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KaaPo ↓

TPV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

KaaPo or draw
71%
KaaPo or TPV
78%
Draw or TPV
50%

Winning margin

KaaPo wins by 2+
29%
TPV wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

KaaPo 1+ goals
87%
KaaPo 2+ goals
60%
KaaPo 3+ goals
33%
TPV 1+ goals
78%
TPV 2+ goals
45%
TPV 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

KaaPo (draw refunded)
63%
TPV (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KaaPo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 54 matches

TPV away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.45 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KaaPo attack 1.63 + TPV defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.04

TPV attack 1.55 + KaaPo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

KaaPo scores more
50%
level
22%
TPV scores more
29%

KaaPo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "KaaPo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KaaPo 4 – 0 TPV

KaaPo beat TPV 4-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Puuha-areena KHT in Kaarina.