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KaaPo vs Musa — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

KaaPo
KaaPo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Musa
Musa
8/19/2022Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 12R.V. Group Areena Nurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

KaaPo44%
×Draw22%
Musa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KaaPo
1.92
Musa
1.67

KaaPo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 38 away

creates per match

KaaPo
1.63
Musa
1.84

allows per match

KaaPo
1.50
Musa
2.21

finishing

KaaPo+0.00on par
Musa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KaaPo ↓

Musa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

KaaPo or draw
66%
KaaPo or Musa
78%
Draw or Musa
56%

Winning margin

KaaPo wins by 2+
24%
Musa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

KaaPo 1+ goals
85%
KaaPo 2+ goals
57%
KaaPo 3+ goals
30%
Musa 1+ goals
81%
Musa 2+ goals
50%
Musa 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

KaaPo (draw refunded)
56%
Musa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KaaPo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 54 matches

Musa away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.21 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KaaPo attack 1.63 + Musa defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.92

Musa attack 1.84 + KaaPo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

KaaPo scores more
44%
level
22%
Musa scores more
34%

KaaPo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "KaaPo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: KaaPo 2–1 Musa

KaaPo beat Musa 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on August 19, 2022.

The match was played at R.V. Group Areena Nurmi in Kaarina.