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KaaPo vs FC Espoo — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

KaaPo
KaaPo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Espoo
FC Espoo
7/21/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 13Kaarinan Keskuskenttä (Kaarina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

KaaPo43%
×Draw24%
FC Espoo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KaaPo
1.68
FC Espoo
1.45

KaaPo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

creates per match

KaaPo
1.63
FC Espoo
1.40

allows per match

KaaPo
1.50
FC Espoo
1.73

finishing

KaaPo+0.00on par
FC Espoo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KaaPo ↓

FC Espoo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

KaaPo or draw
67%
KaaPo or FC Espoo
76%
Draw or FC Espoo
57%

Winning margin

KaaPo wins by 2+
22%
FC Espoo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KaaPo 1+ goals
81%
KaaPo 2+ goals
50%
KaaPo 3+ goals
24%
FC Espoo 1+ goals
77%
FC Espoo 2+ goals
42%
FC Espoo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

KaaPo (draw refunded)
56%
FC Espoo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KaaPo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 54 matches

FC Espoo away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KaaPo attack 1.63 + FC Espoo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.68

FC Espoo attack 1.40 + KaaPo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KaaPo scores more
43%
level
24%
FC Espoo scores more
33%

KaaPo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KaaPo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KaaPo 1 – 0 FC Espoo

KaaPo beat FC Espoo 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on July 21, 2018.

The match was played at Kaarinan Keskuskenttä (Kaarina).