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KaaPo vs EIF — Suomen Cup 2018

KaaPo
KaaPo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
EIF
EIF
5/17/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundR.V. Group Areena Nurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KaaPo11%
×Draw15%
EIF75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KaaPo
0.96
EIF
2.78

EIF creates 190% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

creates per match

KaaPo
0.75
EIF
2.56

allows per match

KaaPo
3.00
EIF
1.17

finishing

KaaPo+0.00on par
EIF+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KaaPo ↓

EIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–29%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

KaaPo or draw
25%
KaaPo or EIF
85%
Draw or EIF
89%

Winning margin

KaaPo wins by 2+
3%
EIF wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

KaaPo 1+ goals
62%
KaaPo 2+ goals
25%
KaaPo 3+ goals
7%
EIF 1+ goals
94%
EIF 2+ goals
76%
EIF 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

KaaPo (draw refunded)
12%
EIF (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KaaPo at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

EIF away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KaaPo attack 0.75 + EIF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

EIF attack 2.56 + KaaPo defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

KaaPo scores more
11%
level
15%
EIF scores more
75%

EIF at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "EIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KaaPo 1 – 4 EIF

EIF beat KaaPo 4-1 in Suomen Cup on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at R.V. Group Areena Nurmi in Kaarina.