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Kaan-Marienborn vs Westfalia Rhynern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Kaan-Marienborn
Kaan-Marienborn
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
4/10/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - Promotion Round - 1Sportplatz Breitenbachtal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kaan-Marienborn58%
×Draw20%
Westfalia Rhynern23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaan-Marienborn
2.36
Westfalia Rhynern
1.43

Kaan-Marienborn creates 65% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

creates per match

Kaan-Marienborn
3.21
Westfalia Rhynern
1.85

allows per match

Kaan-Marienborn
1.00
Westfalia Rhynern
1.51

finishing

Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par
Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaan-Marienborn ↓

Westfalia Rhynern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kaan-Marienborn or draw
77%
Kaan-Marienborn or Westfalia Rhynern
80%
Draw or Westfalia Rhynern
42%

Winning margin

Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+
36%
Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals
90%
Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals
68%
Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals
41%
Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
76%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
42%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)
72%
Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaan-Marienborn at home — creates 3.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Westfalia Rhynern away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaan-Marienborn attack 3.21 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.36

Westfalia Rhynern attack 1.85 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kaan-Marienborn scores more
58%
level
20%
Westfalia Rhynern scores more
23%

Kaan-Marienborn at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Kaan-Marienborn 3–2 Westfalia Rhynern

Kaan-Marienborn beat Westfalia Rhynern 3-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Breitenbachtal in Siegen.