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Kaan-Marienborn vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Kaan-Marienborn
Kaan-Marienborn
CANC
13:00
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
6/6/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 40Sportplatz Breitenbachtal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kaan-Marienborn82%
×Draw11%
Westfalia Herne7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaan-Marienborn
3.33
Westfalia Herne
0.90

Kaan-Marienborn creates 270% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Kaan-Marienborn
3.21
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

Kaan-Marienborn
1.00
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaan-Marienborn ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Kaan-Marienborn or draw
93%
Kaan-Marienborn or Westfalia Herne
89%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
18%

Winning margin

Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+
65%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals
96%
Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals
84%
Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals
63%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
59%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
23%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)
92%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaan-Marienborn at home — creates 3.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaan-Marienborn attack 3.21 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 3.33

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Kaan-Marienborn scores more
82%
level
11%
Westfalia Herne scores more
7%

Kaan-Marienborn at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaan-Marienborn face Westfalia Herne (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Kaan-Marienborn hosting Westfalia Herne. Match starts June 6, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kaan-Marienborn host Westfalia Herne at Sportplatz Breitenbachtal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.