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Kaan-Marienborn vs Victoria Clarholz — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Kaan-Marienborn
Kaan-Marienborn
FT
3 – 3
Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
9/19/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 4Sportplatz Breitenbachtal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kaan-Marienborn67%
×Draw18%
Victoria Clarholz16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaan-Marienborn
2.50
Victoria Clarholz
1.14

Kaan-Marienborn creates 119% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

creates per match

Kaan-Marienborn
3.21
Victoria Clarholz
1.28

allows per match

Kaan-Marienborn
1.00
Victoria Clarholz
1.79

finishing

Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par
Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaan-Marienborn ↓

Victoria Clarholz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kaan-Marienborn or draw
84%
Kaan-Marienborn or Victoria Clarholz
82%
Draw or Victoria Clarholz
33%

Winning margin

Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+
45%
Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals
92%
Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals
71%
Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals
45%
Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
68%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
32%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)
81%
Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaan-Marienborn at home — creates 3.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaan-Marienborn attack 3.21 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.50

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kaan-Marienborn scores more
67%
level
18%
Victoria Clarholz scores more
16%

Kaan-Marienborn at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Kaan-Marienborn 3–3 Victoria Clarholz

Kaan-Marienborn and Victoria Clarholz drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Breitenbachtal in Siegen.