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Kaan-Marienborn vs Paderborn II — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Kaan-Marienborn
Kaan-Marienborn
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Paderborn II
Paderborn II
5/25/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - Promotion Round - 3Sportplatz Breitenbachtal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kaan-Marienborn54%
×Draw20%
Paderborn II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaan-Marienborn
2.29
Paderborn II
1.54

Kaan-Marienborn creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kaan-Marienborn
3.21
Paderborn II
2.09

allows per match

Kaan-Marienborn
1.00
Paderborn II
1.37

finishing

Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par
Paderborn II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaan-Marienborn ↓

Paderborn II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kaan-Marienborn or draw
74%
Kaan-Marienborn or Paderborn II
80%
Draw or Paderborn II
46%

Winning margin

Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+
33%
Paderborn II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals
90%
Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals
66%
Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals
40%
Paderborn II 1+ goals
79%
Paderborn II 2+ goals
45%
Paderborn II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)
68%
Paderborn II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaan-Marienborn at home — creates 3.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Paderborn II away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaan-Marienborn attack 3.21 + Paderborn II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.29

Paderborn II attack 2.09 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kaan-Marienborn scores more
54%
level
20%
Paderborn II scores more
26%

Kaan-Marienborn at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaan-Marienborn vs Paderborn II

Kaan-Marienborn beat Paderborn II 4-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Breitenbachtal in Siegen.