KÁ Hafnarfjördur 4–2 Berserkir: Result & Stats

KÁ Hafnarfjördur

4 – 2

Berserkir

4/17/2019

Cup · 2nd RoundGaman Ferða völlurinn (Hafnarfjörður)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KÁ Hafnarfjördur28%

×Draw18%

Berserkir54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KÁ HafnarfjördurExpected goals in this matchBerserkir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

3.08

KÁ Hafnarfjördur

2.25

Berserkir

3.08

Berserkir creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.83

creates per match

2.67

3.50

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

KÁ Hafnarfjördur

1.83

Berserkir

2.67

allows per match

KÁ Hafnarfjördur

3.50

Berserkir

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KÁ Hafnarfjördur+0.00on par

Berserkir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KÁ Hafnarfjördur ↓

Berserkir →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–42%

1–01%

1–14%

1–25%

1–36%

1–44%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

KÁ Hafnarfjördur or draw

46%

KÁ Hafnarfjördur or Berserkir

82%

Draw or Berserkir

72%

Winning margin

KÁ Hafnarfjördur wins by 2+

15%

Berserkir wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

KÁ Hafnarfjördur 1+ goals

89%

KÁ Hafnarfjördur 2+ goals

65%

KÁ Hafnarfjördur 3+ goals

39%

Berserkir 1+ goals

95%

Berserkir 2+ goals

81%

Berserkir 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

KÁ Hafnarfjördur (draw refunded)

34%

Berserkir (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

82%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

KÁ Hafnarfjördur at home — creates 1.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Berserkir away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

KÁ Hafnarfjördur attack 1.83 + Berserkir defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.25

Berserkir attack 2.67 + KÁ Hafnarfjördur defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

KÁ Hafnarfjördur scores more

28%

level

18%

Berserkir scores more

54%

Berserkir at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Berserkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff