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KA Akureyri vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar — Úrvalsdeild 2025

KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
5/10/2026ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

KA Akureyri50%
×Draw22%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KA Akureyri
1.91
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.36

KA Akureyri creates 40% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

creates per match

KA Akureyri
1.82
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.30

allows per match

KA Akureyri
1.43
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.00

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par
IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw
73%
KA Akureyri or IBV Vestmannaeyjar
78%
Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar
50%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+
28%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals
85%
KA Akureyri 2+ goals
57%
KA Akureyri 3+ goals
30%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals
74%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals
39%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)
65%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 1.82 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.30 + KA Akureyri defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

KA Akureyri scores more
50%
level
22%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more
27%

KA Akureyri at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "KA Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Úrvalsdeild: KA Akureyri 2–0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar

KA Akureyri beat IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2-0 in Úrvalsdeild on May 10, 2026.