KA Akureyri 3–0 Ægir: Result & Stats | Cup

KA Akureyri

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ægir

N. Þórisson 90+2', 90'

S. Hauksson 76'

8/10/2022

Cup · Quarter-finalsKA-völlur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KA Akureyri37%

×Draw20%

Ægir43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KA AkureyriExpected goals in this matchÆgir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

2.30

KA Akureyri

2.13

Ægir

2.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.60

creates per match

3.00

1.60

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

KA Akureyri

2.60

Ægir

3.00

allows per match

KA Akureyri

1.60

Ægir

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Ægir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

Ægir →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw

57%

KA Akureyri or Ægir

80%

Draw or Ægir

63%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

20%

Ægir wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

88%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

63%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

35%

Ægir 1+ goals

90%

Ægir 2+ goals

67%

Ægir 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

46%

Ægir (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Ægir away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 2.60 + Ægir defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ægir attack 3.00 + KA Akureyri defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

KA Akureyri scores more

37%

level

20%

Ægir scores more

43%

Ægir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ægir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

D. Hafsteinsson

46'

S. Þórsteinsson← B. Van Den Bogaert

49'

T. M. Thorisson

60'

Crístofer← B. Eyþórsson

62'

A. Viktorsson← A. Matthíasson

70'

J. Árnason← E. Aðalsteinsson

76'

S. Hauksson

79'

B. Aðalsteinsson← S. Hauksson

79'

Rodri← D. Hafsteinsson

88'

Hrannar Steingrímsson← H. Steingrímsson

90'

90+2'

Ægir

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hauksson

▼

Aðalstei

⚽2

Þórisson

Manager: A. Grétarsson

46'▲S. Þórsteinsson←▼B. Van Den Bogaert

70'▲J. Árnason←▼E. Aðalsteinsson

79'▲B. Aðalsteinsson←▼S. Hauksson

79'▲Rodri←▼D. Hafsteinsson

88'▲Hrannar Steingrímsson←▼H. Steingrímsson

KA Akureyri substitutes

ÞórsteinssonÁrnasonAðalsteinssonRodriSteingrímssonBrkovićJajalo

Manager: N. Živanović

60'▲Crístofer←▼B. Eyþórsson

62'▲A. Viktorsson←▼A. Matthíasson

Ægir substitutes

CrístoferViktorssonÓskarssonYanachkovÁsbergssonSigurðssonJónsson